You can now leverage detailed SP3 building-specific risk modeling in your assessment of your full portfolio of buildings!
The SP3-Portfolio brings our building-specific seismic risk assessment advances to the analysis of your building portfolio.
SP3-Portfolio marries the typical portfolio-level insurance modeling with the detailed building-specific vulnerability curves from the SP3-RiskModel. Historically, portfolio risk analyses use generic vulnerability models for classes of buildings, which loses any building-specific risk information, but this simplification is no longer needed with SP3-Portfolio.
SP3-Portfolio has been built from the ground up, utilizing the best available technology, and includes the following features:
- Building-specific vulnerability curves are used for each building in the inventory. These can come from SP3-Batch or SP3-RiskModel, allowing you to mix-and-match models of differing refinement within a single portfolio.
- Ground shaking computed using site-specific soil properties and includes full simulated spectral shapes.
- Monte Carlo simulations of ground shaking incorporate site-to-site and period-to-period correlations in shaking intensity. Simulations are produced for spectral accelerations at periods from 0 to 5 seconds.
- Building response and vulnerability are assessed using spectral acceleration at a period specific to each individual building. An underlying three-mode structural response analysis is also embedded in the building-specific vulnerability analysis process.
- The Monte Carlo analysis process tracks uncertainties in earthquake occurrence, ground shaking structural responses, building damage, repair costs, and building downtimes.
- Outputs include exceedance probability curves, as well as consequences from individual earthquake scenarios and ShakeMaps. Consequence metrics include repair costs (ground-up loss, insured loss, client loss), as well as advanced building downtime results based on several years of recent research (including estimates of reoccupancy time, functional recovery time, and full repair time).
- Comprehensive earthquake event sets from the Third Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast (UCERF3).
- Analyses available for all California locations, with other regions available in subsequent releases.
The images below provide examples of SP3-Portfolio outputs, including exceedance probability curves, scenario outputs for losses, and building recovery times. We look forward to seeing how you will leverage SP3-Portfolio for meeting your portfolio risk assessment needs. Please contact us with any questions or to schedule a demo of SP3-Portfolio.
Loss Exceedance Curve – Baseline with Insurance
Loss Exceedance Curve – Effects of Retrofit Decisions
Scenario Assessment Results – Repair Costs
Scenario Assessment Results – Functional Recovery Times
Traditionally, portfolio loss assessments (as well as building downtime assessment) have relied on generic fragility curves based on HAZUS, ATC-13, or similar judgment/experience-based curves often used in catastrophe (cat) models. This creates challenges for evaluating risk of buildings for which little data are available to constrain experience-based curves. The 3-5 story wood light-frame buildings covered in our April 2021 white paper (available here) are good examples as they are now a common form of construction, but we have virtually no earthquake experience data to inform their vulnerability. Similar challenges exist for post-Northridge tilt-ups, post-Northridge steel moment frames, modern tall buildings in general, and many more!
The SP3 building-specific vulnerability modeling has been validated via the earthquake experience data that we do have [paper, presentation (Detailed Benchmarking and Validation Studies of the SP3-RiskModel), journal paper available upon request]. Then, using the same building-specific vulnerability modeling methods, we can forward-predict building vulnerability for cases where we do not have adequate earthquake data. This forward-prediction is possible, because SP3 is built to use a consistent engineering-analysis-based risk assessment methodology, rather than being judgement/experience-based. This advanced building-specific risk modeling capability is available through the SP3-RiskModel and SP3-Batch.
SP3 users have asked for a way to use their SP3 building-specific risk assessments when analyzing their portfolios, rather than reverting back to generic curves that are not building-specific. These requests led us to build SP3-Portfolio. By integrating portfolio analysis capabilities into the SP3 Platform, analysts can now bring the power of SP3 building-specific vulnerability modeling to their full portfolio analyses, to ensure that consistent and building-specific vulnerability information is being used for all levels of their risk analyses.